Dr Susan Kay

Numerical Modeller

Dr Susan Kay

Contact Details

+44 (0)1752 633100 (switchboard)

Dr Susan Kay is a marine ecosystem modeller, working on 3D numerical models for various regions of the world. Currently her interests focus around producing models that will be of value to decision-makers in the fields of marine conservation, fisheries protection and poverty alleviation. She works on both multi-decade projections, which can give insight into the implications of climate change for the marine ecosystem, and short-term runs enhanced by data assimilation, which can assist with monitoring the present state of regional seas.

Susan joined PML in January 2012. Prior to this she studied for a PhD at the University of Exeter, using a numerical model of the sea surface to investigate how reflected sunlight can contaminate satellite images of marine environments. Originally trained in physics, she has experience in a range of scientific areas and in education.

Key Projects

CERES - advancing a cause-and-effect understanding of how climate change will affect European fisheries and aquaculture (EU Horizon 2020, 2016-2020)
TAPAS – developing tools, approaches and frameworks to support a regulatory framework for sustainable aquaculture (EU Horizon 2020, 2016-2020)
DECCMA - the impact of climate change in three developing-world deltas. (UK and Canadian Aid agencies, 2014-2018)
ESPA Deltas - an interdisciplinary project looking at the potential effects of climate change and policy decisions on the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta. (UK DFID/NERC/ESSRC 2012-2016) click here for more information.
VECTORS - environmental change in seas with changing pressures including climate change, ocean acidification, fisheries and shipping. (EU FP7, 2012-2015)
OPEC - developing tools for environmental managers of European seas (EU FP7, 2012-2015).


Kay, S., Butenschön, M., 2016. Projections of change in key ecosystem indicators for planning and management of marine protected areas: An example study for European seas. Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci. doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2016.03.003 

Butenschön, M., Clark, J., Aldridge, J.N., Allen, J.I., Artioli, Y., Blackford, J., Bruggeman, J., Cazenave, P., Ciavatta, S., Kay, S., Lessin, G., van Leeuwen, S., van der Molen, J., de Mora, L., Polimene, L., Sailley, S., Stephens, N., Torres, R., 2016. ERSEM 15.06: a generic model for marine biogeochemistry and the ecosystem dynamics of the lower trophic levels. Geosci Model Dev 9, 1293–1339. doi:10.5194/gmd-9-1293-2016

Ciavatta, S., Kay, S., Saux-Picart, S., Butenschön, M., Allen, J.I., 2016. Decadal reanalysis of biogeochemical indicators and fluxes in the North West European shelf-sea ecosystem. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans,121, 1824–1845. doi:10.1002/2015JC011496

Fernandes, J.A., Kay, S., Hossain, M.A.R., Ahmed, M., Cheung, W.W.L., Lazar, A.N., Barange, M., (2015). Projecting marine fish production and catch potential in Bangladesh in the 21st century under long-term environmental change and management scenarios. ICES J. Mar. Sci. J. Cons. fsv217. doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsv217

Kay, S., Caesar, J., Wolf, J., Bricheno, L., Nicholls, R.J., Islam, A.K.M.S., Haque, A., Pardaens, A., Lowe, J.A., (2015). Modelling the increased frequency of extreme sea levels in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta due to sea level rise and other effects of climate change. Environ. Sci. Process. Impacts 17, 1311–1322. doi:10.1039/C4EM00683F
Marras, S., Cucco, A., Antognarelli, F., Azzurro, E., Milazzo, M., Bariche, M., Butenschön, M., Kay, S., Bitetto, M.D., Quattrocchi, G., Sinerchia, M., Domenici, P., (2015). Predicting future thermal habitat suitability of competing native and invasive fish species: from metabolic scope to oceanographic modelling. Conserv. Physiol. 3, cou059. doi:10.1093/conphys/cou059 

Kay, Susan, John Hedley, and Samantha Lavender. 2013. “Sun Glint Estimation in Marine Satellite Images: a Comparison of Results from Calculation and Radiative Transfer Modeling.” Applied Optics 52 (23) (August 10): 5631–5639. doi:10.1364/AO.52.005631.

Kay, Susan, John Hedley, Samantha Lavender, and Alex Nimmo-Smith. 2011. “Light Transfer at the Ocean Surface Modeled Using High Resolution Sea Surface Realizations.” Optics Express 19 (7) (March 28): 6493–6504. doi:10.1364/OE.19.006493.

Kay, Susan, John D. Hedley, and Samantha Lavender. 2009. “Sun Glint Correction of High and Low Spatial Resolution Images of Aquatic Scenes: a Review of Methods for Visible and Near-Infrared Wavelengths.” Remote Sensing 1 (4) (October): 697–730. doi:10.3390/rs1040697.

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