Harnessing plankton research to inform next generation climate models 

Image caption: Microplanktonic producers and consumers pictured under the microscope, taken from a sample from Plymouth Marine Laboratory’s L4 sampling station about six nautical miles south of Plymouth, on the 16th May 2025. Image credit: Bryony Pearton – PML. 

Plankton may be small, but they power the planet – feeding marine life and underpinning global biogeochemical cycles. Yet the models used to simulate their influence on ocean ecosystems have not kept pace with developments in understanding of how biology and ecology functions, according to a landmark new publication led by PML’s Professor Kevin Flynn. 

Plankton models form the core of marine ecosystem simulators, used from regional resource and ecosystem management through to climate change projections, and are essential for us to predict what the future may hold for our planet, and prepare accordingly. 

However, in the perspectives paper, ‘More realistic plankton simulation models will improve projections of ocean ecosystem responses to global change’, published today in the scientific journal Nature Ecology & Evolution, a team of over 30 international experts argue that plankton models need updating to reflect contemporary knowledge, requiring urgent joint attention from both empiricists and modellers. 

What are simulation models? 

Simulation models, simplifications of reality that describe changes over time, provide us with the only means to look into the future. Models allow us to explore the potential consequences of different actions, from changes to fisheries and pollution policy to climate change mitigation. However, confidence in that ‘forward look’ requires confidence that the models adequately describe reality. 

Professor Flynn outlines the significance of plankton to Earth as we know it: 

“Plankton are mainly microscopic organisms that grow in the ocean (and also in inland waters) that support the base of the food chain. No plankton –  no fish, no sharks, no whales, no seals, no coral, etc. However, the diversity of the plankton is critical; that biodiversity cannot be best compressed into just a few groups, yet invariably that is what happens in models.” 

“Additionally, photosynthetic members of plankton play a role similar in magnitude to those of plants on land in producing oxygen and fixing carbon dioxide. They have had a transformational impact on how Earth evolved, and are likely to have a huge role in how our planet responds to climate change. ” 

Given that plankton play such a vital role in the natural processes of our planet, plankton models are central to our understanding of how oceans respond to global change. But the authors warn these tools do not sufficiently reflect what science now knows about plankton physiology, diversity, and their roles in ecosystem functioning. 

“We’re using simulation tools built on 30 to 50-year-old concepts to understand the most complex and rapidly changing ecosystems on Earth. And that’s a real problem – not just for science, but for policy and for wider society. We need to be sure that models describe the ecophysiology of these organisms in a realistic manner.” explains Professor Flynn. 

This disconnect could have serious consequences – from underestimating biodiversity shifts to missing key drivers of marine productivity and carbon cycling. Using models with over-simplified conceptual cores runs the risk of getting the “right” results (aligning with what data are available) for the wrong reasons, giving a false sense of confidence for using such models in projecting into the future. 

The paper calls for a transformation in how plankton are modelled and how modellers and empiricists work together. Among the key recommendations: 

• Greater collaboration between empirical scientists and modellers, especially during model development 

• Better accounting for aspects of real-world ecological complexity, known to be of critical importance, in core model design 

• New tools that allow engagement with the development of simulation models by scientists that lack specialist coding skills 

• Investment in “digital twin” platforms for plankton research – new-generation models that can simulate realistic biological processes and inform decision-making under global change 

“Plankton are as essential to the Earth system as are forests and grasslands on land, yet the tools we use to model them don’t reflect that importance,” Flynn explains. “If we want to build trust in future ocean projections, we need to build better models – models better grounded in real biology.” 

This perspective paper emerged from a UKRI-NERC funded project exploring plankton digital twins, with the aim to produce user-friendly models to help scientists and decision-makers explore different marine futures. But the authors found existing models overlooked key biological concepts, thus hindering the development of this next-generation simulation approach.  

In Flynn’s words: 

“We’re building the future of ocean prediction on outdated conceptual frameworks.” 

The authors urge the scientific community to treat modelling as a core tool in plankton ecology and in teaching activities – just as molecular biology revolutionised the science from the 1980s onward, so too must simulation modelling become embedded in plankton research. 

“The danger is that if we don’t address this now, we will continue to pour investment into outdated models potentially providing misleading information” says Flynn. “We need a plankton ecosystem modelling revolution – and we need it fast.” 

The full paper, ‘More realistic plankton simulation models will improve projections of ocean ecosystem responses to global change’, is available from Nature. 

Lead author contact: Prof Kevin Flynn, Plymouth Marine Laboratory — kjf@pml.ac.uk

This work was supported by the UK’s Natural Environment Research Council as part of the “Simulating Plankton” project, contributing to the UN Decade of Ocean Science and the Digital Twins of the Ocean (DITTO) initiative.