Bringing Ocean Science to COP30: In Conversation with Professor Matt Frost

With world leaders, negotiators, business leaders, young people, climate scientists, indigenous peoples, and representatives of civil society gathered in Belém, Brazil for the UN Climate Change Conference (COP30), Plymouth Marine Laboratory (PML) continues its efforts to ensure marine science remains at the heart of climate negotiations.  

For PML’s Head of the International Office, Professor Matt Frost and colleagues from across PML, this extends far beyond the conference itself – encompassing everything from policy briefs and research reports to participation in high-level panels and one-to-one conversations with decision-makers. 

“PML has been involved in COP for many years,” explains Prof Frost. “Our main role as an internationally-recognised marine research organisation is to promote marine science and make sure people have access to the best information, and expertise.” 

That means being on the ground at COP but also being deeply engaged in the lead-up through initiatives like the Ocean and Climate Change Dialogue and developing further routes to ongoing information-sharing such as through co-organising the Virtual Ocean Pavilion.  

Professor Frost discusses the challenges facing COP30, the growing profile of ocean science in climate negotiations, and why optimism remains essential, especially in difficult times. 

Image: The “gateway to the Amazon River”,  the city of Belem is the capital and largest city of the state of Pará in the north of Brazil.

COP has been described as an ‘imperfect vehicle’ for what it’s trying to achieve, but the only one available. What do you see as the importance of COP, and what would you like to see from this one? 

Climate change is a global challenge that requires global action and the COP brings nearly 200 countries together to adopt decisions reflecting the direction of future global climate action. And so, the importance of COP is, no matter what you think about it – and it is imperfect, and it does have weaknesses, as everybody knows – that it brings everybody together around the issue of action on climate change. And it’s global. It’s under the only global convention (UNFCCC) that focuses purely on climate change. It brings high level leaders together. It also brings civil society. It brings scientists. It brings government. It brings so many different people together. So, the importance of COP is that it enables us all to try to develop a globally agreed plan of action. 

That’s the challenge always. How can we come up with a common agreement? But ultimately, if we come away from COP and we’ve nudged forward that conversation, whether it’s transitioning away from fossil fuels or whether it’s including the ocean in more of the high-level announcements, as long as we can nudge that conversation forward, this is the best place to do that. 

What are you hoping to see from COP30? 

I think for this COP in particular, a key focus is what they are calling the “acceleration to implementation”. So, the focus of this COP is on ‘doing’. Let’s stop talking about it and let’s start doing things. From the COP itself, what I hope comes out of it is some very concrete actions and recommendations – that we will do ‘A’, ‘B’, and ‘C’ in order to achieve our goals and objectives. Things like getting indicators agreed for adaptation, and getting the ocean embedded in more of the Nationally Determined Contributions. There are lots of concrete actions needed. 

In terms of the national level, including the UK, and this is a really important point: if everything stays at the international level, it doesn’t really mean anything. It’s just lots of people declaring they’ll do things on a global stage, but it only actually takes effect when you go back and at that national level put in place concrete policies, legislation and action to deliver. 

Given what we’ve seen in the past year with regards to marine heatwaves, extreme weather events, and the crossing of planetary boundaries, do you think there’s an increasing focus on the marine aspects of climate change? Has that shift happened in COP? 

There’s no doubt that the ocean has the highest profile it’s ever had in recent years within the UNFCCC process, and the COP meetings in particular. So that’s great. And that’s down to PML and the global ocean and climate community working to really promote the importance of the ocean, both in terms of its capacity to help with climate change and understanding consequences of decisions in this space, but also in reminding people of its role in climate especially as most of our planet is ocean. 

A lot of the impacts of climate change are impacts on the ocean, which, of course, impacts society itself, because the ocean provides much of the clean air that we breathe, the food we eat, and of course the ocean has itself greatly slowed the rate of climate change in addition to many other benefits.  PML has been at the forefront of really highlighting this, and it’s been great seeing the ocean becoming better understood and achieving greater profile. 

But we can never rest on our laurels because for most people, they don’t interact with the ocean. They don’t see the ocean and understand the role it plays for our planet and wellbeing. Being in Brazil this time there’ll be a lot of focus on the Amazon rainforest and the land, and that’s all great, but we can’t let people forget the importance of the role of the ocean. We can’t let it slip off the agenda. 

What are your expectations of Brazil’s leadership at this COP? 

Brazil is taking on the leadership at a really interesting time because, unfortunately we’re at a time where climate denial is back in the news, where questions over real commitments and transition to clean energy are back. It’s a really difficult time, actually, to lead a COP. Brazil are being very positive about it – putting forward some good ambitious statements and leading in this area. They’ve come out strongly to state that we really need to do something in the climate area. I’m quite optimistic about what’s going to come out of this because of the way Brazil are approaching it. 

What topics will PML be focusing on during COP30? 

PML has a number of areas which are so important in terms of climate change. Just as one example, you take something like climate-smart marine planning. Well, that brings in the elements of adaptation – how are we going to adapt to climate change? Because whatever happens, there’s a lag and we will be impacted by climate change. It brings in impacts of mitigation, things like where you put offshore wind developments. So, climate-smart marine planning is just one area that PML is involved with, which is so integral to how we deliver on the commitments. 

We’ll also be speaking on panels to do with marine carbon dioxide removal. There will be discussions around biodiversity, blue carbon and lots of other areas impacted by or relevant to climate change, including for example the conservation of the Arctic Ocean. That’s where PML really has a key role here, because we have such a broad range of science relevant to the climate discussion. 

What are the key challenges facing the COP process given the current global context? 

I think the key challenge for the UNFCCC process at the moment is that you’re seeing a breakdown in multilateral dialogue. The geopolitical climate is very unstable, as everybody knows. And actually, one of the key outcomes that has been put forward for this COP is to rebuild that multilateral engagement to facilitate global dialogue and cooperation. 

I know there are people who are disillusioned by the UNFCCC process because we’re not where we want to be. Since the Paris Agreement, we’ve already missed lots of targets and goals. So, quite understandably, there are people who question the value of the process. But actually, I think it’s more important than ever, because when you do see this lack of coordination and a breakdown in global cooperation, processes like COP that can bring people together, it becomes doubly important. 

Does climate change actually have more power than we perhaps give it credit for in terms of creating a more unified world? 

That’s an interesting question. On the one hand, it’s all ultimately about national action. If governments at the national level aren’t doing anything, then what’s agreed at the international level doesn’t matter. But on the other hand, climate change is an issue which is global in its nature. It impacts everybody, everywhere, all of the time. 

So, it’s not something you can deal with from a scientific point of view or in any other way just by talking within your own country. You have to actually talk to scientists and others across the world to understand what’s happening. Climate change is actually a driver in bringing people together because it is not an issue that we can deal with in our national silos. It has to be discussed and agreed at the global level. 

Why is it important to have indigenous and local voices built into the COP process? 

It’s really important to have indigenous and local voices – Indigenous People and Local Communities (IPLCs) – involved. We need everybody on board for this. It doesn’t matter who you are, whether you’re a fisherman in a local fishing community or whether you’re a senior scientist in an academic institution or work in the government, we all need to be on the same page to address the climate challenge. 

It’s also important because what we’ve realised over the years is that there is a lot of knowledge and expertise within the IPLC community in particular that has been overlooked and not brought into the process. We need academic science from research institutes from across the world, but we also need evidence from these communities that have such a close connection to the ocean and have such a deep understanding, and we need to better capture that knowledge and bring that into the process. 

What are your three wishes for COP30? 

Number one – I think we’d probably all agree on this one – is that it delivers. It does what it says on the tin. So, we come away with concrete agreements, a lot of them put into practice on the ground back in our countries and elsewhere. 

Number two, I would like to come away from this COP seeing the ocean more embedded in the processes to deliver upon these agreements, such as further building on the outcomes of COP26 but also integrated in processes coming out of COP30. The ocean is great in terms of having a high profile there, but when focusing on action I would like to see that written into all the processes and agreements. 

And the third, I would like to see this COP really reinvigorate that sense of global community – that we’re coming together to actually address these problems, because it’s not just about climate change. Climate change is part of the bigger issue with biodiversity and pollution. We talk about the triple planetary crisis. So, my third wish would be that COP would really stimulate bringing that community back together to address those fundamental problems we have for the ocean and our planet. 

Given the stark climate warnings around not meeting the 1.5°C threshold, how do you stay optimistic? 

In order to engage in COP, or actually any international conventions, you have to go in with an optimistic outlook, expecting it to achieve something towards a positive outcome. Because I always say to people, what is the alternative? The alternative is that we give up, we disengage from all the conversations, and we just accept that we’re going to have all of these planetary issues that aren’t going to be dealt with. Well, that’s really scary. So you have to say, first of all, we will engage. Whatever happens, we will engage. 

When you’ve been around a while, yes, there are lots of really difficult and challenging circumstances around targets we haven’t met, things that haven’t been delivered. But at the same time, you see these incremental wins. You see these things that seem small, but all of a sudden you think we wouldn’t have agreed that a few years ago. So, for instance, COP28 was the first ever COP which included the phrase “transition away from fossil fuels.” That was huge. It was just a few words. But to have that in a final declaration from a COP was so important. 

So you stay optimistic because you look at those incremental gains and those wins and you say, okay, I can either be quite down about all the things we’re missing or focus on those things where we have achieved something and try and make that be the focus.